For more than three decades, the hope of a unified Somalia has remained at the center of international efforts. Yet that vision—while rooted in good intentions—no longer mirrors the on-the-ground reality. Somalia today functions not as a single unified state, but as a region divided into three distinct political territories: Somaliland, Puntland, and South/Central Somalia. Each of these regions operates with its own system of governance, security apparatus, and development path.
Rather than clinging to a centralist dream that has failed to take root, it is time to consider a pragmatic, inclusive, and forward-looking alternative: a three-state solution. This proposal does not promote division for its own sake; instead, it honors the practical circumstances and aspirations of millions of Somalis who seek stability, dignity, and self-determination.
A Union That Never Fully United
Somalia’s fragmentation traces back to its 1960 unification—an ambitious merger between the former British Somaliland and Italian Somalia. The union was meant to foster a pan-Somali identity, but it was fraught with deep inequalities. Historical accounts suggest that the northern region contributed over 60% of national revenues while receiving less than a quarter of the parliamentary seats.
These structural imbalances, coupled with years of authoritarian rule under the Barre regime, led to profound resentment—especially in the north. The 1988 conflict and the eventual collapse of the central government in 1991 were not simply political breakdowns, but responses to longstanding grievances.
Somaliland: A Stable and Self-Reliant Democracy
Since declaring independence in 1991, Somaliland has grown into one of the most stable and democratic entities. The region holds regular multi-party elections, upholds rule of law through functioning courts, and maintains peace with no terrorist incidents reported in 2024. Somaliland controls its currency, issues its own passports, and manages an independent security force.
By most international standards, Somaliland meets the core criteria for statehood: a defined territory, permanent population, and a government that exercises effective control. Yet, lack of formal recognition has kept it outside international institutions and investment frameworks. It’s time to recognize Somaliland not as a breakaway region, but as a model of resilience and self-governance in a region thirsty for stability.
Puntland: A Federal Partner Focused on Security and Development
Founded in 1998, Puntland has opted for autonomy within a federal Somalia, rather than full independence. Its government has maintained political order while asserting authority over local resources and territory.
In 2024, Puntland launched Operation Hilaac, a decisive military campaign to dismantle extremist elements in the Cal Miskaad Mountains. With support from international partners, the campaign successfully disrupted terrorist operations, highlighting Puntland’s vital role in regional and global counterterrorism.
While disputes with Mogadishu over constitutional powers persist, Puntland has proven to be a key stakeholder in Somalia’s security framework. It deserves recognition as a proactive, stabilizing force within the federation.
South/Central Somalia: A Region in Urgent Need of Reform
Despite immense international aid and intervention, South/Central Somalia continues to grapple with instability. In 2025, Al-Shabaab’s resurgence under “Operation Ramadan” saw the recapture of at least 15 towns across key regions such as Shabelle and Hiran.
While government forces and African Union troops face challenges, civil society and local leaders continue to step up. From health clinics to legal aid, community-driven initiatives are filling the governance vacuum. But these efforts need structural support, not short-term fixes. What South/Central Somalia requires is a UN-supervised stabilization initiative aimed at rebuilding institutions, reforming governance, and empowering local leadership.
Realism Over Romanticism
The vision of a centralized Somali state, while inspiring, is now more symbolic than strategic. A more sustainable and peaceful future lies in embracing the reality of three distinct regions—each on its own path, but united by shared geography, culture, and mutual interests.
This model could be inspired by historical precedents like the peaceful division of Czechoslovakia, Eritrea’s recognized independence, and South Sudan’s internationally supervised statehood. In each case, structured transitions led to peaceful outcomes.
Navigating the Challenges With Courage
Transitioning to a three-state structure will not be simple. Nationalist sentiments, international caution, and legal complexities must be addressed. But these are not insurmountable obstacles—they are challenges that can be met with dialogue, legal frameworks, and international cooperation.
To move forward, the international community should take the following steps:
- Recognize Political Realities – Open formal dialogues with Somaliland, Puntland, and South/Central Somalia as distinct political actors.
- Support Legal Pathways – Develop peaceful separation mechanisms, including border commissions, minority protections, and shared resource agreements.
- Targeted Investment – In Somaliland, focus on infrastructure and innovation. In Puntland, boost energy and security sectors. In South/Central Somalia, emphasize peacebuilding and institution-building.
- Launch a UN Trusteeship in South/Central Somalia – A time-bound program to restore governance, support elections, and rebuild public trust.
Somalia’s current configuration may not align with past ideals—but it offers a realistic foundation for peace and prosperity. Somaliland is already a functioning democracy. Puntland is a vital partner in regional security. South/Central Somalia needs urgent, long-term support.
As the Somali proverb says, “Nabadu waxay timaadaa marka runta la ogaado”—Peace comes when truth is acknowledged.
It’s time the world stops treating unity as the only path to stability, and starts supporting a peaceful, plural, and cooperative Somalia—one built on the realities of today, not the shadows of yesterday.
