Landlocked Ethiopia seeks a maritime foothold in the Gulf of Aden by hook or by crook, and tensions spike in East Africa, putting global security and peace at risk.
By AbdiRizak M. Warfa & Isaac Muhammad
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On Jan 1st, 2024, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, and Muse Bihi of Somaliland, an unrecognized breakaway region of Somalia, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that will see Ethiopia gain access to the Gulf of Aden via Somaliland.
In subsequent Ethiopian communications, it became clear Ethiopia sought access to the sea and the land corridor leading to it—an area about 200 km (125 miles) from the internationally recognized Ethiopian-Somali border. In exchange, Somaliland will get an unspecified stake in Ethiopian Airlines. President Bihi also sought Ethiopia’s recognition of his breakaway region as the part of the agreement.
Since its announcement, the MoU has stoked tensions in the Horn, potentially destabilizing the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea corridor. Turkey, Qatar, Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Egypt are all involved in one way or another.
How it all Began
For over a century, landlocked Ethiopia asserted claims to Eritrea and Somali coastal lands as it sought direct access to seawaters. As far back as 1893, King Menelik of Ethiopia laid claims to distant territories, from the Indian Ocean to Khartoum and the Red Sea coast. Subsequent leaders followed suit, claiming “natural” Ethiopian “rights” to access the Gulf of Aden, Bab-El-Mandeb, and the Red Sea.
Following federation with Eritrea in 1952, Ethiopia finally had that access but lost it in 1993 when Eritrea gained independence following a 30-year war of liberation.
In Oct 2023 speech to the Ethiopian parliament, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assertively declared that Ethiopia has every right to access a seaport directly, and if denied these “rights,” “there will be no fairness and justice, and if there is no fairness and justice, it’s a matter of time, we will fight.” He further proclaimed that “a population of 150 million can’t live in a geographic prison.”
While worrisome, most dismissed the speech as red meat for the Ethiopian populace struggling with an on-going unrest in the Oromo and the Amhara regions and economic hardships resulting from a bloody civil war that concluded with silent peace in the country’s north.
Spike in Tensions
Following the Ethiopian move, tensions inevitably arose. Somalia categorically rejected the MoU as a breach of Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, with its president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, declaring Somalia’s territory as “inviolable and non-negotiable.” Subsequently, Somalia sought out Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and other regional players to “unite efforts to address shared challenges and interests both in the region and beyond.”
Few days on, President Mohamud flew to Eritrea. Ethiopia invited Somaliland’s chief military officer to Addis Ababa. All these maneuvers, combined with Abiy’s erratic and unpredictable behavior, predict new unrest in an already volatile region.
The Consequences for the Region and Beyond
Drone strikes. Hijackings. Terrorism. Piracy.
As it is, the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea corridor, a major international trade route, is boiling over. For months now, Houthi militias off the coast of Yemen have targeted sailors trekking across the narrow Bab-El-Mandeb Strait. The U.S. and its allies have resorted to countermeasures that curtail the Houthi activities.
Abiy Ahmed’s proposed annexation of new Somali territories would likely exacerbate the worsening conditions in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea corridor.
In 2006, when Ethiopia invaded Somalia with the blessing of the West, that invasion led to the inception, formation, and rise of the Al-Shabaab terror group, with immediate severe consequences for regional and global security. The current Somali government recently made great strides in ridding Al-Shabaab of the country and has liberated many territories—putting Al-Shabab on the run.
Abiy Ahmed’s proposed annexation would likely give Al-Shabaab and other international terrorist organizations a new lifeline. The proximity of the proposed annexation area to Yemen also makes it likely for Al-Shabaab to join hands with the Houthis, risking further escalation of global terrorism and conflict in a major international trade route.
The geopolitical implications of the conflict go far beyond the Horn, the Gulf of Aden—Bab-El-Mandeb strait, and the Red Sea region.
If it comes to fruition, further escalations across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel are likely. Somalia relies on Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Eritrea, and the Sudan for support. Ethiopia is counting on the Emirates and other players for behind-the-scenes political support. As such, an expansion of the conflict, from the Horn of Africa to the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, and across the Middle East, would become inevitable.
The West and Implications of Unstable Somalia.
Hundreds of thousands of Somali diasporas living in North America and Europe are educated citizens of their adopted countries and thriving. These folks are well connected to their motherland, frequently visiting, providing financial support to their immediate families, and contributing to the rebuilding of Somalia and its government.
Ever since the MoU came to light, protests and meetings within the Somali diaspora have been nonstop. These meetings and demonstrations are not coordinated but rather a natural reaction to Ethiopia’s poker moves.
To understand Somalis’ reaction at home and abroad, one must learn the history between these neighbors.
The Ethio–Somali conflict has its origins in the 1500s. In its most recent iteration, the two countries fought in 1964 and 1977 over Somali-inhabited Ogaden region that was ceded to Ethiopia by the British empire in 1940s. And then there was 2006 when, with the support of the late Abdullahi Yusuf, Ethiopia invaded Mogadishu. Moreover, both countries supported armed opposition against the other until Somalia’s collapse–giving Ethiopia the upper hand militarily and economically.
Because of this prolonged and historical animosity, Somalis see Ethiopia with an unfavorable view. Following Ethiopia’s 2006 invasion of Somalia, many Somali youngsters left the West to join Al-Shabab and fight against Ethiopia under the slogan of ‘Jihad’ to liberate Somalia from the aggressor. The largest contingent left from the United States.
A repeat of the 2006 cycle is in the making, unless the U.S. and the Europeans intervene and ensure Somalia continues its steady progress. A stable and prosperous Somalia is not only in the interest of Somalis and the region but, equally, in the interest of the West, particularly the United States. What happens in Somalia has direct implications for Somali Americans and Somali Europeans. It directly correlates to the West’s stability and security.
Inadequate World Response
In response to the new conflict, most nations had called for dialogue and lowering of the temperature. The world at large seems ambivalent about the real risk of a new war in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. The consequence of a new conflict is far greater than meets an eye test. African leaders are peculiarly responsible for taming Abiy’s ambitions before a Pandora’s box over territorial integrity opens.
As for Ethiopia, as the African Journalist Tafi Mhaka recently wrote, it has “no existential crisis or enforceable claims over foreign territories. It must learn to co-exist with its neighbors and live within its internationally recognized geographical boundaries.”
The alternative is mayhem that puts the greater region and the world at risk.
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Isaac Muhammad is a Doctoral Candidate in Public Administration, a Somali writer and political analyst based in the United States.
AbdiRizak M. Warfa is professor at the University of Minnesota and the author of “Cries in the Hinterland,” a historical book about the Somali Region in Ethiopia.
